CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-09-23T18:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-09-23T18:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21721/-1
CME Note: Eruption from AR 3110 (near N18E80) starting around 2022-09-23T17:30Z seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304. Opening of field lines occurs around 17:50Z seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193. This CME is also associated with an M1.7 flare peaking at 2022-09-23T18:10Z. Appears to contain a weak faint shock that is much wider. Comment from Tarik Salman from LASSOS team regarding arrival (non-arrival in this case): Looking at the in-situ signatures, I confirm that the L1 signature appears dominated by the HSS arrival. I do not necessarily see any noteworthy features of an ICME. For weak ICMEs or ICMEs with glancing blows, it becomes really tricky to distinguish them, especially when there is another large-scale structure (i.e., HSS) present.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-27T00:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: -20012.93 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy